Friday, September 26, 2008

The Future in the Rear-view Mirror

From the Swiss bank analyst
Many observers are worrying about the impact of a bailout plan (if passed) on the US economy's government debt and deficit arithmetic. In the early 1990s, however, after the first RTC [Resolution Trust Corporation, set up to deal with the S&L crisis] was enabled, the government's fiscal deficit nearly doubled over a 3 year period. Yet it took a year for the US equity market to find a bottom, 2 years for the economy to find a bottom, 3 years for the housing market to find a bottom and 4 years for long-term yields to find a bottom.

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